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Michaelantiz

11 Jun 2025 - 05:45 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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11 Jun 2025 - 05:26 pm

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11 Jun 2025 - 04:57 pm

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11 Jun 2025 - 04:16 pm

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Joshuamip

11 Jun 2025 - 03:59 pm

A failed Soviet-era spacecraft likely crashed back to Earth overnight
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A Soviet-era spacecraft that was designed to make a soft landing on Venus — but instead remained trapped in Earth orbit for decades — likely fell from the sky early Saturday morning, according to the European Space Agency.

The object, referred to as Cosmos 482 or Kosmos 482, is believed to be a capsule launched by the Soviet Union in March 1972 that failed en route to a transfer orbit that would have taken it to Venus to study its environment. The probe entered the dense layers of the atmosphere around 9:24 a.m. Moscow time (2:24 a.m. ET) Saturday, splashing down in the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta, Indonesia, according to the Russian space agency, Roscosmos.
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The ESA, which was one of several organizations using ground sensors to keep tabs on the falling space junk, also said on its website that the vehicle was not spotted by radars in Germany around 7:32 UT (3:32 a.m. ET), indicating, “it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred.”

In the decades since it was launched, Cosmos 482 circled Earth aimlessly as it was slowly dragged back toward home.

Astronomers and space traffic experts have had their eyes on the object for years now as its orbital path slowly reached lower and lower altitudes, a result of the subtle atmospheric drag that exists even hundreds of miles away from Earth.

The cylinder-shaped craft is about 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter.

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11 Jun 2025 - 03:01 pm

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Jasonbrawn

11 Jun 2025 - 02:32 pm

Rei do Pitaco 2025: Guia Completo para Jogadores de Apostas no Brasil
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Em 2025, o Rei do Pitaco continua a ser uma das plataformas de apostas mais confiaveis e completas para jogadores de cassino e fas de esportes. Com um sistema simples de cadastro, pagamentos rapidos via PIX, e uma variedade de jogos de cassino e slots com altissimo retorno ao jogador (RTP), a plataforma oferece uma experiencia de apostas segura e eficiente.

Neste post, vamos abordar as principais informacoes que voce precisa saber para aproveitar ao maximo o Rei do Pitaco, desde o processo de cadastro ate a recuperacao de conta, bonus e jogos.
Cadastro na Plataforma Rei do Pitaco
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Como fazer o cadastro no Rei do Pitaco?
Para realizar o cadastro na plataforma Rei do Pitaco, o usuario deve acessar o site ou aplicativo da plataforma e preencher um formulario com informacoes pessoais essenciais. Isso inclui o nome completo, nacionalidade, CPF, data de nascimento, endereco, numero de telefone e e-mail. Alem disso, o cadastro exige a insercao dos dados bancarios, como banco, agencia e numero da conta, ou dados de pagamento via PIX. O processo tambem requer o envio de uma copia digitalizada de um documento de identificacao com foto (como RG, CNH ou Passaporte) e a realizacao de um reconhecimento facial. Todos esses dados sao fundamentais para garantir a seguranca e conformidade com as regulamentacoes legais da plataforma.

Como criar uma conta no Rei do Pitaco?
A criacao de conta segue os mesmos passos descritos anteriormente. Ao preencher as informacoes no formulario de cadastro, o usuario sera solicitado a validar sua identidade por meio de um codigo enviado por SMS. Caso necessario, a plataforma pode solicitar o envio de documentos adicionais, como uma copia de documento de identificacao. Apos esse processo, a conta sera ativada, permitindo que o usuario aproveite todos os recursos oferecidos pela plataforma.

Como se cadastrar na plataforma?
O cadastro e um processo simples e acessivel. Acesse o site ou aplicativo do Rei do Pitaco, preencha o formulario com os dados solicitados e siga as instrucoes de validacao para concluir o processo. Apos a verificacao, sua conta estara pronta para uso.
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Victorget

11 Jun 2025 - 02:26 pm

Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs.

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As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home.

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Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil.

“I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago.

Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead.
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“What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.”

Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%.

Billyvam

11 Jun 2025 - 02:22 pm

Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs.

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As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home.

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Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil.

“I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago.

Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead.
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“What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.”

Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%.

Jasonfek

11 Jun 2025 - 02:22 pm

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